After 10 years of production, shale gas in the United States
cannot be considered commercially viable. That’s the report from scientists
meeting this past Monday in Denver, CO for the Geological Society of America.
According to a report in Science News, the scientists report that while the use
of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling for "tight oil" is an
important contributor to U.S. energy supply, it is not going to result in
long-term sustainable production or allow the U.S. to become a net oil
exporter.
Two recent studies – one of the global patterns of
fossil-fuel production in the past decade, and the other of oil production
patterns from the Bakken Field – show that “despite a tripling of prices and of
expenditures for oil exploration and development, the production of nearly all
countries has been stagnant at best and more commonly is declining.
Drilling rates are sufficient to offset this decline – for now.
But eventually the plays will play out, and production decline set in, likely
before the end of this decade. J. David Hughes, president of the Canadian firm
Global Sustainability Research Inc, puts it into perspective: “Tight oil is an
important contributor to the U.S. energy supply, but its long-term
sustainability is questionable. It should be not be viewed as a panacea for
business as usual in future U.S. energy security planning.”
